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General

@May 1, 2022 8:48 PM (GMT+8) Honestly, actually pretty happy to be able to type and write my thoughts out as it comes in this journal / research page of sorts. Much to learn about from writing and thinking through ones thoughts, yes?

Anyhow, at that — very interesting. Recently managed to get a free trial (of sorts) for TradingView Pro+ and am amazed at my ability to use these other charts to review my positions.

One of which is this new chart called “Renko”. Pretty interesting, that it filters out most noise and only shows clear trends and momentum!

Renko Chart Definition and Uses

A Renko chart is a type of chart, developed by the Japanese, that is built using price movement rather than both price and standardized time intervals like most charts are. It is thought to be named after the Japanese word for bricks, "renga," since the chart looks like a series of bricks.

www.investopedia.com

Renko charts are effective in identifying support and resistance levels since there is a lot less noise than a candlestick chart. When a strong trend forms, Renko traders may be able to ride that trend for a long time before even one brick in the opposite direction forms.

But at that, it does require me to go into far “smaller” timeframes. But to note! Timeframes are not a consideration for Renko charts. So yes. Definitely a good way to review momentum man.

Increasing or decreasing the box size will affect the "smoothness" of the chart. Decreasing the box size will create more swings, but will also highlight possible price reversals earlier. A larger box size will reduce the number of swings and noise but will be slower to signal a price reversal.

Using BTC as a momentum driver, Renko charts for both BTC and RUNE

Additionally, with the use of a MACD indicator and the MACD Histogram especially, I can “safely” attempt to speculate on the direction that which the asset is moving.

But then again, this is Crypto, so everything with a grain of salt.

In the case of the MACD Histogram, when the momentum starts to taper, that is very likely the opportunity for a reverse position.

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Timing

At that, with the consideration that smaller boxes are a better way of recognising shifts in momentum, what is the value of larger boxes / timeframes / percentages then?

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What is the value of larger boxes?

Yes, percentages — after a review (of sorts), realised that the boxes are significantly larger at different “timeframes” which equates to larger percentages too.

BTC 1hr = ~0.7%

BTC 15min = ~ 0.35%

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Verifying the Probability

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Narrative

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Realised that I should use the power of tables and probabilities to help me make my entry decisions. Really interesting though, learning as I go along to be a better trader.

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Would be great if I can learn how to automate this with code somehow — maybe in a spreadsheet document? or Notion here as a Formula, to be a summary of indicators

Keywords
1	Renko		Green Turning Green Red Turning Red
2	MACD Strategy		Up Down
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green Light Green Red Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up Moving Up Down Moving Down

			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Green Turning Green Red Turning Red	Green Turning Green Red Turning Red
2	MACD Strategy		Up Down	Up Down
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green Light Green Red Light Red	Green Light Green Red Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up Moving Up Down Moving Down	Up Moving Up Down Moving Down

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Templates

📈	🟢 Entry	🟢 6.29	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Red	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Up	Up
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green	Green
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up	Up
4	RSI		Up	Up

Time	BTC	RUNE
10:16 PM	~38,180	~6.29

Probability Validity

🟢

Closing Positions:

Short Closed
Long Closed

Broken Supports and Resistances

Broken Support
Broken Resistance

Renko Reversals

Possible Renko Reversal 📈/📉
Renko Reversal

+1 / +2
-1 / -2

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Precedent

Honestly feel this is a prime example. But also making me rethink some of the strategies I have in place.

Using the RSI indicator as a more powerful indicator — easily for “overbought” and “oversold” conditions.

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Live

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Archived

5 Minutes

			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Turning Red	Turning Red
2	MACD Strategy
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Light Green	Light Green
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Moving Down	Moving Down

15 Minutes

			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Green	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Up
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green	Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up	Moving Up

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@May 2, 2022

5 Minutes 🐻

📉	Entry	6.33	Exit
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Red	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Up	Down
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Light Green	Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Moving Down	Moving Up
4	RSI		Down	Up

Honestly seems to be like this is just bad speculation, since BTC and RUNE indicators are at odds, pretty much. But okay, it is indeed a live test so shall see how it goes.

But just a thought, what if Renko is used for BTC, while a normal chart is used for the paired asset, i.e. RUNE in this case?

📉	Entry	6.33	Exit
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Red
2	Candlestick		Down	Down
3	MACD Strategy		Up	Down
4.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Light Green	Light Green
4.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Moving Down	Moving Down
5	RSI		Down	Moving Down

15 Minutes 🐂

Takeaway

Deciding to use Timeframe vs Traditional for Box Size
Deciding box size for Timeframe
Deciding box size for Traditional

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@May 3, 2022

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15 Minutes 🐂

@May 3, 2022 11:13 AM (GMT+8)

📈	🟢 Entry	🟢 6.29	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Red	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Up	Up
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green	Green
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up	Up
4	RSI		Up	Up

@May 3, 2022 11:56 AM (GMT+8)

📈	🟢 Entry	🟢 6.29	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Turning Red	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Up	Down
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Green	Green
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up	Up
4	RSI		Up	Up

@May 3, 2022 9:47 PM (GMT+8)

Okay, pretty much exited the “6.29” position because nothing much changed HAHA. Okay it did, but I wasn’t present to capitalize on that shift.

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15 Minutes 🐻

Time	BTC	RUNE
10:16 PM	~38,180	~6.29

Time	BTC	RUNE
3:30 AM	~37,500	~6.1

Probability Validity

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@May 4, 2022

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15 Minutes 🟢

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Attempting something quite different today — just using the my understanding of the Renko chart as a base for analytics. But! Still hedging / being in both positions, just in case.

@May 4, 2022 9:55 AM (GMT+8)

📈	🟢 Entry	🟢 6.29	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Turning Green	Green
2	MACD Strategy		Down	Down
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Red	Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Down	Up
4	RSI		Down	Up

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👆🏼 Might probably be a case of the Altcoin (RUNE) decoupling from BTC. But still, somehow, I’m sure the case of BTC will affect said’s momentum in the end.

@May 4, 2022 4:39 PM (GMT+8)

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Wow. Bullishness is an understatement man. BTC and RUNE just exploding upwards.

@May 5, 2022 9:46 AM (GMT+8)

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So damn bullish I got my shorts liquidated. It was a good run indeed. Knew it was a risk somehow, what with the ever-increasing momentum, kept assuming that I would be “safe” with my marginal positions but lo, it’s Crypto so momentum is always a double-edged sword.

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Am just thinking of ways right now about how things could have been better.

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@May 5, 2022

10 Minutes 🔴

@May 5, 2022 11:36 AM (GMT+8)

	🟢 Entry	🟢 7.44	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Green (+1)	Red (-1)
2	MACD Strategy		Down (-1)
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Light Green (+1)	Red (-1)
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Down (-1)	Down (-1)
4	RSI		Down (-1)	Down (-1)

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“-5” but also, trying out a new timeframe. See if it works better. Well seems promising, no!

@May 5, 2022 7:08 PM (GMT+8)

	🟢 Entry	🟢 7.44	🔴 Exit	🔴
			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Red (-1)	Red (-1)
2	MACD Strategy		Down (-1)	Down (-1)
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Red (-1)	Light Green (+1)
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Down (-1)	Going Down (-1)
4	RSI		Down (-1)	Down (-1)

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-8

@May 6, 2022 12:31 AM (GMT+8)

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Just. Amazing. Not sure if fluke/by chance but damn — the conviction of the short was true! BTC tanked to ~37,000 and RUNE to ~6.3.

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@May 6, 2022

10 Minutes 🟢

@May 6, 2022 10:34 AM (GMT+8)

			BTC	RUNE
1	Renko		Green	Green
2	MACD Strategy
3.1	MACD Indicator	Histogram	Light Red	Light Red
3.2	MACD Indicator	MACD Line	Up	Going Up
4.1	RSI	State	Oversold
4.2	RSI	Line	Up	Up

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Honestly, what have I learned though? That the Renko chart really works and that I just need to have better position management — i.e. 50% ability to offset volatility. Because it surely will go in the direction that was dictated by the Renko!

Renko Charts and its ability to filter out noise

General

Renko Chart Definition and Uses

Timing

Verifying the Probability

Narrative

Templates

Precedent

Live

Archived

5 Minutes

15 Minutes

@May 2, 2022

5 Minutes 🐻

15 Minutes 🐂

Takeaway

@May 3, 2022

15 Minutes 🐂

15 Minutes 🐻

@May 4, 2022

15 Minutes 🟢

@May 5, 2022

10 Minutes 🔴

@May 6, 2022

10 Minutes 🟢